Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo

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Market context

Auger-Aliassime and Tabilo are scheduled to meet in the Roland Garros ATP draw on 1 June 2026. The Canadian, ranked in the top 20, faces the Chilean qualifier or main-draw entrant in what the market currently prices at 66% for Auger-Aliassime's advancement on Polymarket's USDC-denominated conditional tokens. That two-thirds weighting reflects the seeding disparity and recent form differential between the pair, though the settlement window extends to 8 June to account for weather delays or scheduling shifts common at Roland Garros.

Auger-Aliassime has compiled a 52% win rate against players ranked outside the top 50 over the past two seasons, whilst Tabilo's clay-court record sits materially weaker than his hard-court performances. Historical precedent suggests unseeded or lower-ranked challengers at Roland Garros advance roughly 28% of the time against top-20 opposition, a figure that aligns closely with the current 34% YES probability for Tabilo. The Canadian's recent record on clay—including a second-round exit at Madrid in May 2025—provides some friction against the market's confidence, though his overall trajectory remains upward.

Traders should monitor the official Roland Garros draw confirmation and any injury bulletins in the week preceding 1 June. Court assignments and weather forecasts released 48 hours before play can shift momentum, particularly for lower-ranked players who benefit from favourable scheduling. The Polygon-settled contract carries standard counterparty risk tied to Polymarket's operational status; any match postponement beyond 7 June triggers the 50-50 resolution clause.

Methodology

This page reviews Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.