Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Leandro Riedi

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Roland Garros qualifying match as a done deal, with the conditional token sitting at 100% YES in USDC on Polygon. On the contract’s own terms, that means the market is effectively assuming Pierre-Hugues Herbert advances over Leandro Riedi, unless the match is not completed in time and settles under the tie or cancellation rules. For a user holding the position, the key point is that the token is tied to the official outcome of the qualifying match, not to pre-match odds or a broad view of player quality.

The historical frame is mixed rather than one-sided. Public H2H databases show the pair level at 1-1 overall, with Herbert’s earlier clay win offset by Riedi’s more recent success, so there is no long-running dominance to anchor a 100% certainty reading. That matters because tennis qualification markets can move sharply when the head-to-head is split and the players are close enough in ranking to force a live price adjustment rather than a simple favourite/underdog narrative. In other words, a fully priced YES is usually about market mechanics and late information as much as it is about the sport itself.

The main catalysts are administrative rather than tactical: whether the match is completed, whether there is a schedule change at Roland Garros, and whether any delay pushes the contract towards its 7-day fallback window. Live listings from Sofascore and TennisTemple place the match in the French Open qualifying draw on 22 May, while third-party previews have already framed Riedi as the betting favourite and Herbert as the more experienced clay-court player. For Polymarket traders, the important checks are the official order of play, court status, and whether the contest begins and finishes within the settlement window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.