Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Team Falcons face OG in a best-of-one Dota 2 match at the BLAST Slam Group Stage, scheduled for 26 May at 7:30AM ET. The Polymarket contract currently prices this at 100% YES, reflecting either extreme confidence in one outcome or insufficient liquidity to move the conditional token pricing away from its extremes. USDC settlement on Polygon will execute once the match concludes and the result is verified, with the market resolving to either team's name or 50-50 if the match doesn't complete within seven days of the scheduled date.

OG's historical performance in group-stage Dota 2 tournaments provides the primary benchmark for reading this probability. The organisation has won two International titles and consistently qualifies for major events, though their recent form has been inconsistent across 2024 and early 2025. Team Falcons, based in the Middle East, have emerged as a competitive force in regional and international qualifiers but lack the tournament pedigree of OG. Previous BLAST Slam events have seen favourites priced at similar extremes when one team held a clear seeding advantage or when limited pre-match information was available to traders.

The settlement window closes at 17:30 UTC on 26 May, giving traders approximately 24 hours post-match for any administrative delays or dispute resolution. Key variables include team roster confirmation closer to the event date, any last-minute schedule adjustments announced by BLAST organisers, and whether either team reports technical or personnel issues that might affect participation. Traders should monitor official BLAST Slam announcements and team social media for withdrawal or substitution notices, which would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause if the match is cancelled entirely.

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.