United States vs. Senegal

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Active sub-markets

Market context

A friendly international fixture between the United States men's national team and Senegal is scheduled for 31 May 2026, with settlement contingent on the match outcome by 19:30 UTC. The Polymarket contract pricing this encounter at 100% YES reflects near-certainty that the match will occur as scheduled, with USDC settlement on Polygon conditional tokens. This ceiling probability typically indicates either fixture confirmation from official sources or minimal perceived risk of cancellation within the settlement window.

Friendlies involving established confederations rarely face postponement once announced, particularly when both federations have confirmed participation. The USMNT and Senegal have met competitively in World Cup qualifying and tournament play; their most recent encounter was a 2–1 US victory in a 2018 World Cup group stage. Friendly matches between nations of this calibre serve preparation purposes ahead of major tournaments, and both federations benefit from the fixture economically and competitively. Historical cancellation rates for confirmed friendlies at this level sit below 2%, typically driven only by security concerns or extraordinary circumstances.

Traders monitoring this contract should track official announcements from US Soccer and the Senegalese Football Federation regarding squad availability, venue confirmation, and any geopolitical developments affecting travel. Fixture schedules for international windows are typically locked months in advance; the May 2026 window falls within standard FIFA international match calendar dates. Any withdrawal of either nation's participation would trigger settlement discussions, though such reversals remain uncommon once publicly announced and ticketed.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.