United States vs. Paraguay

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States will face Paraguay in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 12 June, with Polymarket currently pricing a US victory at 28% YES—meaning the conditional token for a US win trades at roughly $0.28 per share on USDC via Polygon. This implies the crowd assigns a 72% probability to either a Paraguay win or a draw, a notably cautious assessment of American prospects despite their status as co-hosts.

Historical matchups between these sides offer limited precedent for calibrating this probability. The nations have met only twice in competitive fixtures, with the US winning both encounters (2-0 in 1995 Copa América qualifying, 1-0 in 2016 Copa América Centenario). Paraguay, however, has qualified for every World Cup since 1998 and reached the quarter-finals in 2010, whilst the US has struggled in recent tournaments, failing to qualify for 2018 and exiting the group stage in 2022. The current market pricing reflects this recent trajectory more than historical head-to-head records.

Traders monitoring this contract should track squad announcements and injury updates as the tournament approaches, particularly regarding key American midfielders and defenders. Paraguay's preparation schedule and any late roster changes will likewise influence settlement odds. The settlement window closes at 01:00 UTC on 13 June, allowing roughly 24 hours post-match for official FIFA confirmation before conditional tokens resolve. Group stage composition and seeding, finalised by FIFA in late 2025, may also shift expectations if either nation's qualifying performance alters their tournament positioning.

Methodology

This page reviews United States vs. Paraguay across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.