United States vs. Paraguay - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States faces Paraguay in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 12 June at 9:00 PM ET. This market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Polymarket currently prices the YES outcome—a specific scoreline materialising—at 10%, reflecting the mathematical reality that any single exact result occupies a narrow slice of probability space. The conditional token structure on Polygon means traders holding USDC can partition their exposure across dozens of possible outcomes, with the winning score paying out 1 USDC per share whilst all others resolve to zero.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in major tournaments typically see winning probabilities between 8% and 15% for the most likely results. The 2022 World Cup saw Argentina beat France 3–3 after extra time (regulation finished 2–2), whilst the 2018 final between France and Croatia ended 4–2. Group-stage matches between nations of comparable strength—the US and Paraguay sit in different competitive tiers, with Paraguay ranked considerably lower—tend to produce scorelines in the 1–0 to 2–1 range, though upsets and defensive collapses remain common.

Traders should monitor squad announcements from both federations through May 2026, particularly injury updates affecting key forwards and defensive midfielders. Paraguay's recent Copa América performances and the US's CONCACAF qualifying record will shape pre-match analysis. Weather conditions at the venue and any late fixture rescheduling could affect tactical approaches. The settlement window closes at 01:00 UTC on 13 June, allowing roughly four hours post-match for final confirmation of the official score.

Methodology

We track United States vs. Paraguay - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.