Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket's conditional token pair on this J2 League fixture is currently pricing a 56% probability for the YES outcome, with USDC settlement on Polygon expected by 1 June 2026 at 10:00 UTC. The underlying event—a regular-season match between Vanraure Hachinohe FC and Fukushima United FC on Monday, 1 June 2026—sits within Japan's second-tier professional football calendar, where both clubs compete for promotion and stability within the J2 100 Year Vision League framework.

Vanraure Hachinohe has historically occupied mid-table positions in J2, whilst Fukushima United has shown greater volatility, ranging from playoff contention to relegation battles depending on seasonal form. Direct head-to-head records between these sides offer limited predictive power given J2's competitive depth; recent seasons have seen neither club establish dominance over the other. The current 56% probability reflects modest confidence in the YES outcome rather than a strong consensus, suggesting traders view this as a competitive fixture with meaningful uncertainty around team form, injuries, and tactical setup by early June 2026.

Traders monitoring this contract should track squad announcements and injury reports from both clubs through May 2026, as mid-season departures or key player absences can shift match dynamics significantly. Fixture congestion in the weeks preceding 1 June may affect fatigue levels, particularly if either side is involved in cup competitions or playoff positioning battles. Recent J2 season data and both clubs' performance trajectories through spring 2026 will provide the most reliable signals for repricing this conditional token pair closer to settlement.

Methodology

We track Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.