New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Yankees travel to Cleveland for a regular-season matchup on 10 June, with first pitch at 1:10 PM ET. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 95% implied probability for a Yankees victory, reflecting New York's stronger roster composition and recent form. The settlement window extends to 17 June at 17:10 UTC, allowing for postponements or rescheduling within that seven-day buffer. On-chain, this resolves as a binary conditional token on USDC via Polygon, settling 50-50 only if the game is cancelled without a make-up or ends in a tie—an exceptionally rare outcome in MLB.

Historical context suggests the 95% probability sits at the extreme end of pre-game pricing for regular-season matchups. The Yankees have consistently outperformed Cleveland in head-to-head records over the past decade, and their payroll advantage typically translates to tighter odds even when facing capable opponents. However, single-game baseball carries inherent volatility; weather delays, bullpen availability, and injury status can shift outcomes substantially. The Guardians have demonstrated competitive pitching depth, which occasionally produces upset results against favourites.

Traders should monitor injury reports through 9 June, particularly regarding starting pitcher assignments and key position players. Weather forecasts for Cleveland on 10 June warrant attention, as rain could trigger postponement and extend the settlement window. Recent roster transactions or roster moves by either club may affect bullpen depth or offensive capability. MLB's official box score from the completed game will serve as the definitive resolution source, with no discretionary interpretation required.

Methodology

We track New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.