Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Phillies travel to Milwaukee on 13 June for an evening fixture against the Brewers, with Polymarket currently pricing a Phillies victory at 40% (implying 60% for Milwaukee). That 40-60 split reflects the Brewers' home-field advantage and recent form, though the settlement window extends to 20 June to accommodate any postponements—relevant given June weather patterns in the Midwest.

Historical matchups between these franchises show competitive balance, though home teams in regular-season MLB games win roughly 54% of contests overall. The Brewers have maintained a stronger record in their division in recent seasons, and their pitching depth typically performs well in June. However, the Phillies' offensive capability—particularly their top-order hitters—remains a consistent threat. The current 40% probability for Philadelphia suggests the market views them as underdogs but not prohibitive ones, consistent with how Polymarket prices road teams facing established home sides.

Traders should monitor roster updates and injury reports through to game day, particularly any late-breaking changes to starting pitchers, which materially shift win probabilities in baseball markets. Weather forecasts for Milwaukee on 13 June warrant attention, as conditions can favour either team's style of play. The conditional token mechanics on Polygon mean positions settle against USDC once official MLB statistics confirm the result, with the 50-50 tie resolution clause applying only in genuinely exceptional circumstances (cancellation without rescheduling). Any announcement regarding venue conditions or scheduling changes would likely trigger repricing across the order book.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.