Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Dayana Yastremska

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Jasmine Paolini faces Dayana Yastremska in a Roland Garros women's singles match scheduled for 24 May 2026. The conditional token on Polymarket currently reflects 100% implied probability for Paolini's advancement, meaning traders have priced in her victory with absolute certainty. This extreme confidence sits on USDC collateral across Polygon, where the market settles based on match outcome rather than seeding or pre-tournament rankings. The settlement window closes 31 May, allowing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled date for completion.

Paolini's ranking trajectory and recent clay-court form provide the foundation for this pricing. The Italian reached the 2024 Roland Garros final and has maintained top-ten status, whilst Yastremska, despite her talent, has faced consistency challenges on the WTA tour and carries a losing record against higher-ranked opponents on clay. Historical matchups between players of differing clay-court pedigree at Grand Slams typically favour the more established performer, particularly when one player has demonstrated sustained success at the specific venue.

Traders monitoring this contract should track official Roland Garros scheduling announcements and any injury disclosures from either player's camp in the week preceding 24 May. Weather delays at Roland Garros frequently push matches beyond their scheduled times; the settlement mechanism's seven-day grace period accounts for this, but extended rain interruptions could create ambiguity. Court assignments and match order changes, typically announced 48 hours before play, may also shift conditions that affect performance expectations.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.