Roland Garros WTA: Liudmila Samsonova vs Jil Teichmann

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Liudmila Samsonova and Jil Teichmann are scheduled to meet in the Roland Garros women's draw on 24 May 2026. The current Polymarket pricing shows zero probability assigned to Samsonova's advancement, with the conditional token pair trading at extreme skew on Polygon. This pricing reflects either strong conviction in Teichmann's superiority or insufficient liquidity depth in the contract, a common pattern when markets first open on lower-profile matchups at Grand Slams.

Samsonova has demonstrated volatility across clay surfaces, with her ranking and form fluctuating considerably between seasons. Teichmann, a Swiss player with a more consistent baseline game, has historically performed steadily at Roland Garros without reaching deep runs. The 0% implied probability for Samsonova appears disconnected from historical head-to-head records and recent form data, suggesting traders may be anchoring to seeding or recent tournament results rather than clay-court specifics. Comparable markets on Polymarket show similar extreme pricing in early-stage Grand Slam matchups, often correcting substantially as the tournament approaches.

Traders should monitor official Roland Garros draw confirmations and any injury announcements through late May, as both players' participation status remains subject to change. Recent WTA rankings and performance at warm-up events in the fortnight preceding Roland Garros will provide concrete catalysts for repricing. The settlement window closes 31 May at 09:00 UTC, allowing seven days beyond the scheduled match date for completion, which covers standard tournament delays but not extended rain interruptions common at Paris.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.