LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shopify Rebellion’s BO3 against Disguised is priced on Polymarket as a near-certain outcome, with the contract showing 100% YES. At that level, there is effectively no spread left for ordinary match uncertainty, so the market is treating a Shopify win as already locked in. For Polymarket users, the position is a claim on USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon, so the practical question is less about strength on stage and more about whether the event is actually completed in a way that fits the resolution rules. If the series is not played, is postponed beyond the seven-day window, or ends in a non-standard state, the market can still resolve 50-50 regardless of the on-field expectation.

The historical frame is straightforward: Shopify entered this matchup with a strong head-to-head record against Disguised, and the available listings from pre-match and live-odds sites pointed to Shopify as the more likely side. BO3 markets are also sensitive to format, because a team only needs two maps, and handicaps or map totals can swing even when the outright winner looks obvious. That helps explain why a contract can sit at an extreme price while still carrying settlement risk if the series format changes, the fixture is rescheduled, or one side receives a forfeit win.

The main things to watch are official LCS scheduling updates, any broadcast or venue changes, and whether the series is reported as fully completed rather than abandoned. Polymarket’s resolution follows the match outcome as reported through the market rules, not social media speculation, so a late alteration to the fixture matters more than team form once the contract is already maxed out. For a user holding the token, the real catalyst is confirmation that the match has finished in a way that satisfies the stated winner condition, rather than a new read on who should be favoured.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.