LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shopify Rebellion face Sentinels in a League of Legends best-of-three match scheduled for 9 May at 21:00 UTC as part of the LCS regular season. The Polymarket contract currently prices this at 100% implied probability for Shopify Rebellion, meaning traders are pricing in a near-certain victory for the Canadian organisation. This extreme pricing reflects either exceptional confidence in Shopify Rebellion's form or minimal liquidity depth on the Polygon-based conditional token pair, where USDC settlement occurs at the 2 May 10 deadline.

Historical LCS match outcomes show that regular season fixtures rarely result in cancellations or ties, making the 50-50 resolution clause largely theoretical. However, the 100% probability warrants scrutiny: Shopify Rebellion's recent performance trajectory, roster stability, and head-to-head record against Sentinels should inform whether this pricing reflects genuine dominance or market inefficiency. Comparable esports markets on Polymarket have occasionally mispriced underdogs when liquidity concentrates on favourites, particularly in lower-tier regional play where data availability is sparse.

Traders should monitor LCS official announcements for schedule changes, player availability issues, or technical delays that could trigger the seven-day cancellation clause. Recent roster moves or coaching changes at either organisation could shift match dynamics materially. The settlement window's tight closure—just hours after the scheduled match time—leaves minimal buffer for extended series play, meaning any fixture running into overtime or requiring rescheduling creates resolution ambiguity that could activate the 50-50 clause.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.