LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Team Vitality face Movistar KOI in the LEC upper bracket semifinal on 23 May, with the conditional token currently pricing Vitality's victory at roughly 10% on Polymarket. The match represents a best-of-five contest where the winner advances directly to the LEC finals, whilst the loser drops to the lower bracket. Settlement occurs at 21:00 UTC on 24 May, allowing a full day for match completion and any technical delays before the 50-50 resolution clause activates.

Vitality's recent form provides the primary lens for reading this probability. The organisation has struggled in the 2024 LEC regular season, finishing outside the top four and entering playoffs as a lower seed. Movistar KOI, by contrast, secured a higher seeding and demonstrated more consistent performance throughout the split. Historical matchups between these rosters favour KOI in recent encounters, though Vitality's playoff experience—particularly their deep runs in previous years—suggests they retain a non-trivial upset path. The 10% implied probability reflects heavy favouritism toward KOI rather than a complete dismissal of Vitality's chances.

Traders should monitor team roster confirmations and any last-minute substitutions announced before the 11:00 ET start time, as the LEC has occasionally fielded unexpected lineups in high-stakes matches. Patch notes released in the week prior will shape champion priority and ban phases. Any schedule disruptions or technical issues during the match itself could trigger the 50-50 resolution if play extends beyond seven days without completion, though LEC fixtures typically conclude within a single day.

Methodology

We track LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.