LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Weibo Gaming face Ninjas in Pyjamas in a League of Legends best-of-three match within the LPL Group Ascend competition on 10 May at 05:00 ET. Polymarket currently prices Weibo Gaming's victory at 81 cents per conditional token on USDC/Polygon, implying an 81% probability of the Chinese organisation winning. The match settlement window closes at 15:00 UTC on the scheduled date, with resolution tied to match completion and outcome determination within seven days of the fixture.

Weibo Gaming's domestic dominance in the LPL provides historical context for the pricing. The organisation has consistently ranked amongst China's top-tier teams, whilst Ninjas in Pyjamas operates as a secondary international roster with less established track record against elite LPL competition. Historical matchups between Chinese regional representatives and international challengers in similar tournament structures have favoured the domestic side at comparable probability levels, suggesting the current 81% reflects standard expectation gaps rather than exceptional circumstance.

Traders should monitor LPL scheduling announcements and roster confirmation through official channels prior to 10 May, as fixture delays or cancellations would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Player availability updates, particularly regarding key positions, could shift conditional token pricing if either team announces substitutions. The seven-day completion window creates minimal tail risk for extended delays, though technical issues during broadcast would require match resumption within the settlement period to avoid ambiguous resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.