Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Minnesota Twins travel to Boston for a day game on 24 May, with first pitch at 1:35 PM ET. Polymarket currently prices a Twins victory at 39 per cent, implying roughly even odds with a slight lean toward the Red Sox. This represents the market's assessment of two teams separated by geography and recent form, with settlement contingent on official MLB final statistics and the settlement window extending through 31 May to accommodate any postponements.

Historical matchups between these franchises offer limited predictive power for single-game outcomes, though the Twins' recent performance against AL East opponents provides context. The Red Sox have traditionally held home-field advantage in May fixtures, and Fenway Park's dimensions favour certain batting profiles. Examining comparable May matchups from prior seasons where one team held a 39 per cent probability shows such contracts typically resolve based on pitching matchups and bullpen availability rather than seasonal win-loss records alone.

Traders should monitor roster announcements through 24 May, particularly injury status for key position players and starting pitcher confirmations. Weather conditions at Fenway—wind direction and temperature affect fly ball distances significantly—warrant attention in the days preceding the game. Recent form matters: the Twins' performance in their preceding series and the Red Sox's home record in the current month will shift conditional token valuations on Polygon as game day approaches. Any late-inning bullpen movements or weather delays that push the game into 25 May remain within the settlement window, though a cancellation without rescheduling would trigger a 50-50 resolution.

Methodology

We track Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.