New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Yankees travel to Cleveland on 9 June for an evening fixture against the Guardians, with Polymarket currently pricing the home side's victory at 47% (YES at 53% for New York). This represents a modest lean towards the visitors despite playing away, reflecting the Yankees' stronger regular-season record and recent form heading into the matchup. Settlement occurs on 16 June, allowing seven days for the contest to conclude should postponement occur.

Historical matchups between these franchises show competitive balance across recent seasons, though the Yankees have held a slight edge in head-to-head records since 2020. The Guardians' 2023 World Series run demonstrated their capacity to compete at the highest level, yet the Yankees' roster depth and payroll advantage typically manifests in regular-season performance. Current market pricing sits between these structural factors—neither team is prohibitive, but New York's marginal advantage is reflected in the 53% probability.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher assignments, as rotation strength heavily influences single-game outcomes in baseball. Injury updates to key position players—particularly any late-week developments affecting either lineup—can shift probabilities meaningfully in the days before first pitch. Weather conditions at Progressive Field merit attention; June temperatures in Cleveland rarely produce extreme conditions, but wind direction affects ball carry. The USDC settlement mechanics on Polygon mean positions remain liquid throughout the settlement window, allowing traders to adjust exposure if material information emerges between now and the 22:40 UTC deadline.

Methodology

This page reviews New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.