Market statistics
- Total volume
- $675K
- 24h volume
- $674K
- Liquidity
- $3.5M
- Open interest
- $494K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Available prediction outcomes (25)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
The Washington Nationals travel to Cincinnati on 14 May for a midday matchup against the Reds. On Polymarket, this contract currently shows zero liquidity at any price point, reflecting minimal trading activity. The settlement window extends to 21 May at 16:40 UTC, providing a week-long window for resolution after the scheduled game time of 12:40 PM ET.
The 0% YES probability displayed on-chain suggests either absent order books or a technical artefact rather than genuine market conviction. In baseball matchups between mid-table teams, Polymarket contracts frequently exhibit sparse liquidity during the pre-game period, particularly for day games with limited trading hours before first pitch. Historical patterns show such contracts typically attract conditional token activity only after significant roster announcements or weather-related postponement risks materialise. The Nationals and Reds finished the 2024 season with comparable records, making either outcome plausible from a fundamentals perspective.
Traders should monitor roster updates and weather forecasts for Cincinnati through 14 May, as rain delays or cancellations would keep the market open past the original settlement date. Pitching matchups announced 24–48 hours before game time often trigger price movement on baseball contracts. Any late-inning developments—injuries to key players or bullpen availability—could shift conditional token distributions if they surface in sports news outlets before the 12:40 PM ET start.
Wikipedia Context
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Washington NationalsThe Washington Nationals are an American professional baseball team based in Washington, D.C. The Nationals compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the National League (NL) East Division. They play their home games at Nationals Park, located on South Capitol Street in the Navy Yard neighborhood of the Southeast quadrant of D.C. along the A
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Washington Nationals minor league players
Minor league players and teams affiliated with the Washington Nationals professional baseball organization include:
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Washington Nationals all-time roster
The following is a list of players, both past and current, who appeared at least in one game for the Washington Nationals National League franchise (2005–present), also known previously as the Montreal Expos (1969–2004).
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Washington Nationals (National Association)
The Washington Nationals of the 1870s were the first important baseball club in the capital city of the United States. They competed briefly in the National Association of Professional Base Ball Players, the first fully-professional sports league in baseball. The Nationals are considered a major-league team by those who count the National Association as a ma
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds on PolyGram
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