Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Inter Miami and Philadelphia meet on 24 May 2026 in an MLS regular-season fixture. The Polymarket contract currently prices YES at 60 cents per share on USDC/Polygon, implying a three-in-five chance that Inter Miami wins outright. Settlement occurs at 23:00 UTC on the match day; conditional tokens resolve based on the final whistle result, with draws and Philadelphia victories pushing the contract to zero.

Inter Miami's recent form and squad depth relative to Philadelphia's defensive record provide the historical anchor for this probability. Miami finished the 2024 season with stronger goal differential and home-ground advantage in comparable fixtures, whilst Philadelphia's Union have struggled with consistency against top-tier attacking units. The 60% pricing reflects Miami's marginal favouritism but acknowledges Philadelphia's capacity to frustrate—a dynamic evident in their head-to-head record, where neither side has dominated decisively over the past three seasons.

Traders should monitor team news through May, particularly injury updates to Miami's key attacking players and Philadelphia's defensive line. MLS fixture congestion in late May often affects squad rotation decisions; any mid-week playoff or cup commitments for either side could shift availability. Weather conditions at the venue and official team sheets released 24 hours before kickoff typically trigger sharp movement in conditional token pricing. Recent form in the weeks preceding the match—particularly win streaks or defensive lapses—historically shifts these markets 5–10 percentage points in either direction.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.