San Diego FC vs. FC Cincinnati

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

San Diego FC will travel to Cincinnati to face FC Cincinnati on Saturday, 16 May 2026 in a regular-season Major League Soccer fixture. The Polymarket contract currently prices this match at 100% YES, reflecting settlement conditions tied to the match occurring as scheduled within the settlement window closing 17 May at 01:30 UTC. On-chain, traders hold conditional tokens denominated in USDC on Polygon, with resolution dependent on whether the fixture takes place rather than any specific outcome.

MLS fixtures rarely fail to occur once officially scheduled, particularly mid-season matches between established clubs. Historical precedent suggests cancellations stem from extreme weather, facility damage, or league-wide stoppages—scenarios that have affected fewer than 2% of regular-season games since the league's expansion phase. San Diego FC, having joined MLS in 2024, and Cincinnati, an established franchise since 2019, both maintain operational infrastructure and fixture reliability records consistent with league standards. The 100% probability reflects this structural reality rather than speculative pricing.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts for Cincinnati in the 48 hours preceding the match, as severe storms or flooding could trigger postponement. MLS injury or suspension announcements affecting key players won't affect settlement but may influence broader market sentiment. Fixture confirmation typically arrives via official MLS communications by Friday morning Eastern Time. Any league-wide scheduling changes—unlikely at this stage of the season—would be announced through official channels. The settlement window's 01:30 UTC close on 17 May provides sufficient buffer for fixture completion and official confirmation.

Methodology

We track San Diego FC vs. FC Cincinnati on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.