Cavaliers vs. Knicks

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Cavaliers–Knicks contract at 53% for the Cavaliers today, with traders paying in USDC on Polygon and the outcome settling through the platform’s conditional token mechanism once the final score is official, including overtime. The market sits close to a coin flip despite New York taking Game 1, which makes the current price more about series state and match-up risk than a simple read on one result. The game itself is scheduled for Thursday night in New York, so any late line move, injury update or change to the starting line-ups can still matter to the closing price.

The strongest comparable frame is the teams’ regular-season profile and the fact they are tightly matched on record: the Knicks finished 53-29 and the Cavaliers 52-30, with Cleveland also carrying a slightly better point-spread setup on some books but New York holding home court. That sort of pairing usually keeps markets efficient and prevents either side from drifting far unless there is a concrete team news edge. ESPN’s Game 1 report also showed why the series is being treated cautiously: New York erased a 22-point fourth-quarter deficit and won in overtime, so the result was driven by a late swing rather than sustained dominance.

For traders, the key catalysts are the official injury report, any change to minutes expectations, and whether either side makes a rotation adjustment after the Game 1 turnaround. The market only resolves on the completed game result, so postponement would simply keep it open, while cancellation without a make-up would trigger the 50-50 fallback. Any pre-match reporting from ESPN or team beat writers on availability, especially around primary ball-handlers and frontcourt match-ups, is likely to be the main driver of intraday repricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Cavaliers vs. Knicks on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.