SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

SS Lazio to beat Pisa SC is priced at about 60% YES on Polymarket, so the contract is leaning towards a home win but still leaves room for an upset on Polygon, where users post USDC against conditional tokens tied to the Serie A result. That level sits below the kind of near-certainty usually seen when a top-half side hosts a newly promoted or struggling away team, but it is not far from the market’s implied edge for a clear favourite. With settlement due by 13:00 UTC on 24 May, traders are effectively pricing the match on the expectation of Lazio’s stronger squad and home advantage at the Stadio Olimpico rather than any guarantee of a routine result.

Comparable reference points point in the same direction. Fox Sports lists Lazio at around -174 to win, while Pisa is a heavy outsider at about +451, which broadly matches a market that makes Lazio a modest favourite rather than an overwhelming one. The price also reflects the sort of Serie A home-vs-lower-table setup where short odds can still be tested by rotation, late-season motivation, or a low-scoring draw. Lazio’s recent head-to-head and live match listings on Flashscore, Sofascore and FotMob all confirm the fixture and kick-off for Saturday evening in Rome, which matters because Polymarket outcomes are binary: if Lazio fails to win in normal time, YES holders lose regardless of how one-sided the underlying play might look.

The main catalysts are team news, confirmed line-ups and any late information on absences, especially if Lazio rotate or Pisa arrive with a changed set-up. Fox Sports is already flagging a home-side edge and a relatively modest 2.5-goal line, which suggests the market expects control but not necessarily a high-scoring blowout. Traders should watch for official squad announcements before kick-off, plus any press-room comments on injuries or suspensions that could shift the expected win probability. Since the contract settles on the match result, not performance metrics, even small changes in goalkeeper, striker or midfield availability can matter more than wider season narratives.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.