World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

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Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is already underway, and the on-chain market for missed penalties is pricing a rare outcome: a 4% chance that the total number of saved or missed spot-kicks equals or exceeds the listed threshold. On Polymarket, this contract trades in USDC on the Polygon network, using conditional tokens to lock payouts based on the final tally of penalties taken in regular, stoppage, or extra time—shootout kicks are excluded. The current price reflects how few missed penalties have occurred so far, with Switzerland’s Breel Embolo scoring the tournament’s first non-shootout penalty just days ago[2].

Historically, missed penalties in World Cups are scarce. Roberto Baggio’s 1994 final miss remains iconic, yet across 35 years of data, only two individuals have missed more than one penalty outside shootouts: Asamoah Gyan (Ghana) with two misses in 2006 and 2010[6]. Lionel Messi and Harry Kane each have six penalties taken, with only one or two not resulting in goals[5]. This pattern suggests that even in high-stakes matches, conversion rates stay high, making a surge in missed attempts an outlier event.

Traders should monitor upcoming knockout fixtures, where defensive pressure and goalkeeper confidence may rise. FIFA’s new time-wasting rules, enforced from the start of 2026, could lead to more penalties awarded but also tighter discipline from keepers[10]. With the settlement window closing on 20 July 2026, any late-match penalties in the final or semi-finals will be critical. Recent reports confirm Messi and Kane have now equalled the historic record for penalties taken, underscoring the volume of opportunities but not necessarily missed ones[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.