UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Song Yadong, the Chinese bantamweight contender, faces Deiveson Figueiredo, the former two-time UFC flyweight champion, in a main-card bout scheduled for 30 May 2026. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's conditional token contract reflects the market's current inability to price this matchup with confidence—a common state for events more than a year away where fighter availability, injury status, and promotional scheduling remain unconfirmed variables. The USDC-denominated contract on Polygon settles based on official UFC declaration of victory, with a 50-50 resolution triggered by draw, technical draw, no contest, or cancellation beyond 13 June 2026.

Figueiredo's historical record provides the primary reference point for assessing this pairing. The Brazilian's two UFC flyweight title reigns (2020–2021) and subsequent move to bantamweight demonstrated his capacity to compete at higher weight classes, though his record at 135 pounds remains limited compared to his dominance at 125. Song's trajectory—a rising contender with notable wins but inconsistent performances against elite opposition—suggests a competitive matchup rather than a heavily favoured scenario for either fighter. The absence of recent comparable matchups between former champions and rising contenders at this specific weight class leaves traders reliant on individual fighter metrics rather than direct historical precedent.

Traders should monitor UFC official announcements regarding fighter confirmations, injury reports, and any schedule adjustments through the settlement window. Figueiredo's recent activity level and Song's next scheduled appearance will signal genuine market-moving information. Polymarket's conditional token mechanics mean early liquidity will likely remain thin until closer to the event date, when fighter health status and public interest crystallise the probability distribution.

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.