Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by 2026?

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Market context

On 12 April 2026, President Trump announced a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil transits daily. This market resolves YES only if Trump, the US government, or US military officials make an explicit, public announcement lifting that blockade before 30 June 2026. The 0% crowd probability on Polygon reflects the recency of the announcement and the absence of any stated timeline for reversal; traders are pricing near-zero conviction that a blockade imposed just weeks ago would be formally rescinded within fourteen weeks.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. The 1973 Arab oil embargo lasted five months before lifting; the 1979 Iranian Revolution disrupted Hormuz traffic for months. More recently, the 2022 Russian invasion prompted temporary shipping disruptions but no formal blockade by a single power. Trump's previous term saw maximum pressure sanctions on Iran but no comparable strait closure. The current 0% reflects genuine uncertainty about whether this blockade represents a sustained policy position or a negotiating posture, since formal announcements of blockade termination are rare—most maritime restrictions simply expire or fade without ceremony.

Traders should monitor diplomatic channels, particularly any US-Iran negotiations or Gulf state mediation efforts. Oil price movements above $120 per barrel could trigger political pressure for de-escalation. Congressional statements, Pentagon briefings, and statements from allied nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE will signal whether the blockade is holding or fracturing. Any formal ceasefire agreement or sanctions relief announcement would be the most direct catalyst for resolution.

Methodology

We track Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.