Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Felix Auger-Aliassime v Aleksandar Kovacevic contract at 100% YES, so the conditional token is effectively being treated as a near-certain Auger-Aliassime advance on Polygon with USDC settlement. In practical terms, that leaves little room for a meaningful move unless there is a match interruption, a late official withdrawal, or an administrative outcome that pushes the market into the 50-50 resolution path.

That price sits well above the wider published view of the match. Preview markets have had Auger-Aliassime as a heavy favourite, with some giving him roughly an 88-90% win probability and moneyline odds around -901, while Kovacevic is the lower-ranked player and the underdog on clay in Hamburg. The head-to-head also points in the same direction for Auger-Aliassime, with prior meetings reportedly won by the Canadian, although one recent clay meeting in Hamburg ended with Kovacevic taking the result in three sets, which is the main reminder that best-of-three ATP matches can still produce variance.

For traders, the key watchpoints are simple: official ATP order-of-play updates, any delay in the Hamburg schedule, and whether the match starts and finishes inside the settlement window. News flow from Hamburg previews on 19-20 May has described the match as Round of 16 at Am Rothenbaum on clay, and live-score listings suggest a scheduled start on 20 May. If the match is postponed beyond seven days from the scheduled date without a winner, or is not played at all, the market would resolve 50-50 rather than to either player.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.