Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Edas Butvilas v Alexander Bublik Geneva Open contract at 0% Yes, implying a near-certainty that Bublik advances in the ATP Geneva Round of 16. On Polymarket, buyers are trading USDC on Polygon and the contract resolves through conditional tokens, so the key question is simply which player progresses, not the margin or any wider tournament outcome. That low price lines up with the broader market view: Bleacher Nation cited Bublik at -325, while Lines.com reported Polymarket had him around an 81% moneyline favourite.

For context, Butvilas is the lower-ranked player by a wide margin, sitting around No. 253 against Bublik’s top-10 ranking, which is why the crowd has not attached much value to an upset. That said, clay can narrow gaps: TennisTemple noted Butvilas has a higher career clay winning percentage than Bublik, even though the Kazakh is far better established at tour level. In a short-format market like this, the main relevance of past comparable spots is that elite players on clay still occasionally get pushed, but the price suggests traders see that as a remote outcome rather than a live risk.

The main catalysts are operational rather than speculative: the ATP live scores page listed the match for 20 May at Centre Court in Geneva, and any schedule shift, on-court retirement, or delay matters because Polymarket’s settlement rules can flip to 50-50 if the match is not played or is deferred beyond the window. Traders should also watch for official ATP updates and live scoreboard status, since the market resolves on whether a winner is actually determined, not on pre-match expectations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.