Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Leandro Riedi

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Market context

Gianluca Cadenasso is due to play Leandro Riedi in Roland Garros qualifying, and Polymarket is pricing the contract at 0% YES right now on USDC-settled Polygon conditional tokens. That leaves the market effectively at the floor, even though the underlying betting lines and tennis previews still make Riedi the clear favourite. Recent market data has Riedi around 1.5 to win outright, with one feed putting him at 1.52 and another at 1.56, which is consistent with a short-priced seed against an unseeded qualifier. Cadenasso’s own route into this round was positive, however, after advancing through his opening match in Paris.

For a Polymarket trader, the useful comparison is not whether Riedi is favoured, but how often qualifying matches with a strong favourite still produce a set drop or a longer-than-expected contest. One preview notes Riedi has won 90% of matches as favourite and often closes in two sets, while Cadenasso has recently shown an ability to take at least one set when listed as underdog. That matters because the market only resolves YES if Cadenasso advances, so a competitive scoreline is not enough unless it turns into a full upset.

The main catalysts are straightforward: whether the match is played as scheduled, whether Paris weather or court scheduling causes delay, and whether either player withdraws before or during play. SuperTennis reported on 20 May that Cadenasso had already moved through in qualifying, while other Italian qualifiers were also progressing, which confirms the draw is active and the match is part of the current Roland Garros qualifying slate. The settlement window runs to 27 May, so if the match is postponed beyond seven days without a winner, the market would settle 50-50 rather than to either player.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Leandro Riedi across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.