Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Casper Ruud’s Geneva Open meeting with Raphael Collignon is priced at 0% YES on Polymarket, leaving the contract effectively dormant on USDC-settled Polygon conditional tokens unless there is a clear update on whether the match is actually live. A 0% print usually means the market is treating the named outcome as highly unlikely, but it does not remove the settlement edge cases: if the match is not played, is delayed beyond seven days, or ends without a winner, the contract can still resolve 50-50 under the market rules. That matters for users who are tracking the conditional token rather than the tennis scoreline itself, because the payout depends on what the official event record says happened, not just who was ahead.

The historical frame is straightforward: Ruud is the established ATP-level player, while Collignon is the lower-profile side of the matchup, so any market priced near zero is usually reflecting draw certainty rather than a view that sport is impossible. Geneva also tends to produce late changes because it sits in a tight pre-Roland Garros schedule, and ATP draw and order-of-play adjustments can move quickly if weather or court timing intervenes. The ATP’s Geneva tournament page and the event’s official draw feed are the most relevant references for confirming whether the match is still on the board.

For traders, the key catalysts are not broader form debates but simple operational ones: the published schedule, any walkover or retirement announcement, and whether the match starts before the settlement window closes on 27 May 2026 at 11:30 UTC. Reuters-style match reports or the ATP live scoreboard are the fastest way to verify an advance or a cancellation, while the Geneva Open draw page is the source that usually settles any ambiguity about whether Ruud or Collignon actually progressed.

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Methodology

We track Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.