Cervia: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Tommaso Compagnucci

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Gadamauri v Compagnucci contract at 100% YES, which means the market is effectively treating Buvaysar Gadamauri as the expected winner on the current USDC- and Polygon-settled conditional token. With the match listed in Cervia and the settlement window running to 29 May, the key point is not the pre-match odds alone but whether the fixture is completed and produces a clear advance for one player; if it is not played, ends level, or is left unresolved beyond the seven-day threshold, the contract can still fall back to a 50-50 outcome.

The shape of the market is consistent with the pre-match read from several tennis pricing sources. Tipstop listed Gadamauri as the favourite at 1.4, versus 2.75 for Compagnucci, and cited stronger recent form for Gadamauri, including an 80% win rate over his last ten matches. Sofascore also placed the match as a Cervia, Italy fixture starting on 22 May at 09:00 UTC, while ATP live scoring had the tie on its match centre, which is a useful check that the event sat inside the official tournament schedule rather than being an exhibition or speculative listing. In other words, the 100% YES price is less a statement that the market is “certain” in a sporting sense than a reflection that traders are already assuming the favourite’s path through to settlement.

For traders, the practical catalysts are simple: whether the scheduled court time holds, whether the match was moved, and whether there is any interruption in Cervia that pushes completion outside the market’s settlement rules. The ATP live stats centre and sportsbook listings both had the contest on 22 May, and recent semi-final coverage on TennisTonic pointed to Compagnucci already being active in the draw the day before, which matters because tournament congestion can affect order of play. On Polymarket, the contract resolves from the on-chain outcome, so the decisive variables are the official result and whether the tournament finishes the match cleanly within the window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Cervia: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Tommaso Compagnucci on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.