Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Vilius Gaubas’s qualifier against Pablo Llamas Ruiz is trading at 0% YES on Polymarket, which means the contract is effectively priced as though the market expects the opposite outcome unless that view changes sharply before settlement. On Polymarket, that price reflects USDC-backed bids on Polygon in the conditional-token contract, so any move in the order book is a direct read-through on how traders assess the match, not a poll or bookmaker line.

The cleanest comparable guide is the head-to-head record: TennisRatio lists one prior professional meeting and says Llamas Ruiz leads 1-0. That matters because a single match is thin evidence, but it still shapes how traders read an apparently one-sided price. Form data in the search results is mixed rather than dominant: Sportus gives Llamas Ruiz a 65% win probability, while ESPN’s record shows a modest 2-1 singles mark in 2026 and 2-3 in 2025. In market terms, 0% YES implies either a stale book, very low liquidity, or a strong expectation that the contract’s named outcome is already effectively dead.

The main catalysts are simple: whether the match is played, whether it starts on schedule, and whether any official Roland Garros qualifying updates alter the draw or completion status. FanDuel had live tennis pricing listed around the fixture, which suggests the match was expected to go ahead, while Flashscore and Sofascore pages indicate active tracking of the tie. For this market, the key Polymarket mechanic is the settlement rule: if the match is not played, tied, or delayed beyond seven days without a winner, the contract resolves 50-50 rather than to either player.

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Methodology

We track Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.