Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Andrea Guerrieri and Max Alcala Gurri were due to meet in the Cervia Challenger semifinal, but Polymarket is currently pricing the USDC-settled, Polygon-based contract at 0% YES, which implies the market has effectively moved to a non-completion or non-resolution state rather than a live view of the tennis itself. In practice, that means traders are watching whether the on-chain conditional token settles to Guerrieri, Alcala Gurri, or the 50-50 fallback if the match is cancelled, ends level, or slips beyond the seven-day window without a winner.

The historical frame is straightforward: the ATP head-to-head record offers little guidance because this was their first scheduled tour-level meeting, and the pre-match listings were split, with Tennis Tonic initially making Guerrieri the marginal favourite while ATP’s archive later records Alcala Gurri as the winner by 7-5, 7-5. That gap matters on Polymarket because late result corrections, abandoned matches, or delayed official scoring can determine whether conditional tokens resolve to a side or revert to the tie outcome. With both players outside the very top of the rankings, small scheduling or administration issues can be more important to the contract than any long-run rivalry data.

The main catalysts are procedural rather than tactical: the match status in Cervia, any official retirement or walkover notation, and whether the ATP score feed and tournament draw are updated cleanly before the settlement window closes. Flashscore, SofaScore and ATP’s score centre are the most relevant live references for traders, while the market description itself makes clear that a match started but not completed still settles on the player who advances. If no winner is confirmed by 29 May 2026 at 09:00 UTC, the contract’s 50-50 fallback becomes the key risk for holders on either side.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.