Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Mensik, the 19-year-old Czech prospect, faces Rublev, the world number six and a three-time Masters 1000 champion, in the second round at Roland Garros on 31 May 2026. The conditional token on Polymarket currently prices Mensik's advancement at 46%, reflecting a substantial underdog position against an established top-10 player. Settlement hinges on match completion by 7 June; any cancellation, tie, or unresolved delay beyond that window triggers a 50-50 split of USDC collateral across both conditional tokens on Polygon.

Rublev has compiled a 4-2 record against players ranked outside the top 50 at Grand Slams over the past three seasons, though his clay-court consistency remains variable—he reached the Roland Garros quarter-finals in 2024 but exited in the first round in 2023. Mensik's trajectory suggests genuine potential; he broke the top 100 in late 2024 and has shown particular aptitude on clay, yet faces a significant gap in match experience at this level. Historical precedent indicates that teenage challengers with Mensik's ranking typically convert fewer than 40% of such encounters against top-10 opposition.

Traders should monitor official Roland Garros scheduling updates and any injury bulletins released by either camp in the 48 hours preceding the match. Rublev's recent form on the European clay swing and Mensik's performance in qualifying rounds will provide concrete data points. Weather delays remain a material risk given the tournament's outdoor courts; the settlement window's 7-day buffer accommodates typical rescheduling, but extended rain could trigger the tie resolution clause.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.