Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Gonzalo Bueno

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Toby Samuel against Gonzalo Bueno at 0% YES on this USDC market on Polygon, which means the contract is effectively saying there is no active bid for Samuel to advance unless fresh flow appears. Because the market settles on the actual match outcome, or flips to 50-50 if the match is abandoned, delayed beyond seven days, or otherwise unresolved, traders are really holding conditional tokens on a fairly narrow French Open qualifying path rather than a broad tournament view. In practice, that makes live scheduling, walkovers and late withdrawals as important as form.

The main historical reference point here is that both players arrived through qualifying and have already completed two matches each, with Samuel dropping one set and Bueno none. That split matters because qualifying markets often move on small sample sizes: a player who has been cleaner on scoreline can still be vulnerable if he has spent more time on court. One preview noted Samuel has a strong long-run match record and had played one extra set, which can cut both ways at this stage of a Grand Slam qualifying draw.

For traders, the catalysts are straightforward: the official Roland Garros order of play, any injury or withdrawal reports, and whether the match starts on schedule. Flashscore has the fixture listed for 21 May 2026, while ATP head-to-head and sportsbook pages confirm the pairing and market availability. If the match is postponed, rescheduled, or not completed, the resolution rules could become more important than the on-court result, especially with the seven-day settlement window running to 29 May.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.