Geneva Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Michelsen

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Stan Wawrinka’s Geneva Open meeting with Alex Michelsen is still priced at 0% YES on Polymarket, so the contract is effectively trading as a near-dead ticket on Polygon, settled in USDC through conditional tokens. That makes sense only if users are assuming the match never resolves in the normal way, because the listed market is explicitly for the player who advances, and both ATP and live score listings show the round-of-16 match was scheduled for 20 May 2026 in Geneva. ATP’s match and highlight pages also indicate Michelsen beat Wawrinka, which is the cleanest comparison for how these contracts tend to move once an outcome is confirmed: when the result is published by the tour, the market typically snaps to the winning side rather than lingering on the pre-match price.

For traders, the main things to watch are not draw logic or ranking debate, but whether the ATP result is formally posted and whether there is any delay, walkover, retirement, or scoring dispute that could push the market into its contingency rules. Because the market’s settlement window runs to 27 May 2026, a delayed official result would still matter, but a match that was not played at all would be handled very differently under the contract terms. In practice, the relevant catalysts are the ATP live stats centre, the tour’s match report, and any tournament scheduling update from Geneva; once those line up, the on-chain contract should settle off the verified result rather than market chatter.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.