Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Charaeva–Aksu contract at **100% YES**, which on the exchange means the conditional token stack on Polygon is effectively being valued as a certain outcome against the market’s settlement rules. For users holding the USDC-denominated position, the relevant question is not the abstract tennis matchup but whether the match advances to a completed result before the settlement window closes; if it is not played, ends level, or drifts beyond the seven-day delay threshold, the contract can still resolve to 50-50 rather than a clean win for either side.

That 100% print is best read against the live tennis context, where available listings point to this being the Figueira Da Foz women’s event, with Charaeva and Aksu scheduled on Court 1 around 11:30 UTC and appearing in a semifinal slot on some scoreboards.[1][5] Comparable price displays on other sports books and exchanges have not been uniform, with one venue showing Aksu as the favourite at 74% while another frames Charaeva as the stronger recent performer, which suggests the underlying match-up has been tradable but not universally one-sided.[2][3] In practice, a Polymarket user should treat the current YES price as a reflection of event completion expectations and settlement mechanics, not just raw head-to-head strength.

The main catalysts are operational: official order of play updates, any rain or court delays in Figueira Da Foz, and whether the match is actually started and finished within the window. If the fixture moves, is suspended, or is pushed back beyond the seven-day rule, settlement can change materially even without a different tennis winner, which is the key risk in a 100% market. Live schedule pages currently indicate the match remains on the day’s card, so traders should watch for final draw confirmation, on-court start time, and completion status rather than relying on pre-match pricing alone.[4][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.