Highest temperature in Ankara on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this Ankara heat contract at 0% YES, which means the market is effectively saying the day’s top temperature is not expected to land in the stated higher range. The market settles in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, with the outcome determined by the final high at Esenboğa International Airport Station on 22 May. Because the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC, the relevant reading is the airport station’s final daily maximum recorded by Wunderground, not any city-wide estimate or later correction.

For context, Ankara in late May is usually warm but not extreme. Seasonal averages from weather services cluster around the low-to-mid 20s Celsius for afternoon highs, and historical late-May readings can vary meaningfully with cloud cover, rainfall and dry continental air. That means traders usually compare the implied price with the distribution of prior May highs rather than with headline forecasts alone. A 0% market suggests either the higher temperature bands are already considered out of reach, or liquidity is thin enough that nobody has priced them in.

The main things to watch are the airport forecast through the morning, any short-term shifts in cloud, showers or wind, and whether the highest temperature is likely to be set before midday UTC. Wunderground’s station forecast and observation updates are the direct reference point here, so a late move in local conditions matters more than broader Ankara forecasts. If skies clear quickly after sunrise, the maximum can arrive early; if cloud or rain lingers, the reading may stay contained well below the upper bands.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Ankara on May 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.