Highest temperature in Ankara on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 24 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Esenboğa International Airport in Ankara will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently prices all outcomes at 0% YES, reflecting the settlement window's closure at noon UTC on that date—meaning traders are pricing in genuine uncertainty across the full temperature distribution rather than any single range commanding confidence. Resolution depends on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, which archives daily highs with precision once the day concludes.

Ankara's May temperatures cluster predictably within a narrow band. Historical data from Esenboğa shows May highs typically range between 26–32°C, with the month's average maximum around 28–29°C. The 0% pricing across all ranges suggests the market has not yet crystallised around the seasonal baseline; comparable May days at the station rarely deviate sharply from this 26–32°C envelope. Traders should reference prior years' May 24 readings and the broader May distribution to calibrate their position relative to the current flat odds.

The primary catalyst is the approach of late spring in the Northern Hemisphere, which will determine whether Ankara experiences typical seasonal conditions or an anomalous heat event. Turkish meteorological forecasts become reliable approximately 10–14 days before the settlement date. Any significant heat dome or unusual pressure system affecting the Eastern Mediterranean region in mid-May could push temperatures toward the upper end of the range, though such events remain difficult to predict this far ahead. Traders should monitor European weather model consensus in early May for signs of unusual warmth.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Ankara on May 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.