Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 22?

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Market context

Atlanta’s temperature market on Polymarket is effectively fully priced into the lowest bucket, with the contract sitting at 0% YES for anything outside the implied outcome set and trading via USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens. That means the market is already treating the day’s high at Hartsfield-Jackson as a near-certainty in the sub-82°F range, rather than as an open-weather call. The relevant question for holders is not whether Atlanta gets a warm afternoon in general, but whether the recorded airport high lands in the specific range used by the contract’s Wunderground settlement data.

The broader climate context points to a late-spring Atlanta high usually in the low-80s. AccuWeather’s May outlook shows daily highs mostly between 77°F and 87°F, while WeatherSpark puts Atlanta’s May highs on a typical climb from about 76°F to 83°F, with readings above 90°F described as rare. That makes a modestly warm result the base case, but not an extreme one. The market’s 0% YES reading suggests traders see the observed airport temperature as already aligning with that normal range, with little room for a late-day surprise.

For catalysts, the main thing to watch is the final Wunderground summary for KATL, since this market settles off the highest recorded temperature for the calendar day rather than a broad city forecast. National Weather Service guidance for Atlanta has recently pointed to highs around the low-to-mid 80s under mostly cloudy conditions with scattered afternoon showers, which is consistent with a capped outcome rather than a heat spike. On Polymarket, settlement depends on the published historical table after the first observation for the next day appears, so any last-hour warmth, delayed update, or station-specific reading at the airport matters more than headlines for the wider metro area.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.