Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 24?

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Market context

On 24 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical temperature data archived by Weather Underground, with the final reading locked in once the day concludes and meteorological records are finalised. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES across all temperature brackets, reflecting the market's inability to assign meaningful probability mass to any single outcome more than eighteen months in advance—a common pattern for weather derivatives trading on extended timeframes where conditional token liquidity remains thin.

Atlanta's May temperatures historically cluster between 75°F and 88°F for daily highs, though extremes have reached into the low 90s during heat waves. The 24 May date carries no particular seasonal anomaly; late May typically marks the transition into early summer conditions across Georgia, with humidity rising but sustained heat waves still relatively uncommon. Comparable May days over the past two decades show high variability, making historical precedent a weak predictor for any specific range without access to seasonal forecasting models that won't become reliable until April 2026.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Atlantic hurricane season setup and any early-summer heat dome patterns that emerge in spring 2026 climate outlooks. The National Weather Service's monthly forecasts, published in March and April, will offer the first credible signals about whether May 24 falls within a cooler or warmer-than-normal period. Any significant weather system tracking toward Georgia in the week preceding settlement could shift conditional token valuations sharply, though current pricing reflects genuine epistemic uncertainty rather than directional conviction.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.