Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25?

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Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will fall into one of several discrete ranges. Polymarket currently prices all YES outcomes at 0%, reflecting either extreme confidence in a particular range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the full spectrum. The settlement hinges on a single data point: the peak temperature logged at KATL's official weather station that day, measured in Fahrenheit and sourced from Wunderground's historical records once the day concludes.

Atlanta's May climate typically produces highs between 78°F and 88°F, with the 30-year normal around 82°F. Historical May 25th records show considerable variance—the station has recorded highs ranging from 64°F to 91°F on this specific date across different years, indicating that whilst late-May heat waves do occur, cooler-than-average days remain plausible. This wide historical spread suggests the market's current 0% pricing may reflect uncertainty about which temperature band the contract actually targets, rather than genuine consensus on the underlying weather outcome.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns emerging in spring 2026, particularly any sustained high-pressure systems developing over the southeastern United States in late May. The National Weather Service's extended forecasts, typically issued 8–14 days prior to 25 May, will provide the most actionable signal. Atmospheric conditions favouring heat domes—such as ridge-building over the Appalachian region—would shift probabilities toward higher temperature ranges, whilst tropical moisture or frontal activity could suppress highs into lower bands.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.