Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and settled against Wunderground historical data. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, reflecting the substantial uncertainty inherent in forecasting a specific day's peak temperature nearly eighteen months ahead. On Polymarket, traders are pricing this contract in USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens representing discrete temperature bands that will resolve to either full value or zero depending on where the actual maximum falls.

May temperatures in Beijing typically range between 20–30°C, with historical data from the past decade showing highs clustering around 25–28°C during this period. The 0% pricing across all brackets suggests the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity or trader conviction to establish meaningful price discovery. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket have historically seen meaningful movement only as the settlement date approaches within weeks, when meteorological forecasts gain reliability and traders can calibrate positions against seasonal patterns and longer-range models.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks and any anomalous warming patterns developing in northern China during spring 2026. El Niño or La Niña conditions persisting into late May could shift temperature distributions meaningfully. Near-term catalysts include monthly CMA forecasts released typically in the preceding month, which often inform professional weather traders' positioning. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 May, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions once actual conditions become observable.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.