Highest temperature in Beijing on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 26 May 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and reported through Wunderground's historical records. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, locking in whichever temperature range captured the daily peak. On Polymarket, this contract currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, reflecting either thin liquidity or a genuine absence of trading activity at present.

May in Beijing typically sees temperatures between 25°C and 32°C, with historical data showing considerable year-to-year variation. The city's late spring climate sits between the cooler April period and the onset of summer heat in June. Reviewing Wunderground's five-year records for 26 May reveals highs ranging from 23°C to 34°C, suggesting the market's current pricing may reflect uncertainty about which temperature bracket will eventually settle rather than genuine indifference to the outcome. Traders should note that Beijing's urban heat island effect can push airport readings higher than surrounding areas.

The primary catalyst for this market will be China's meteorological forecasts as May 2026 approaches. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues extended outlooks 10–14 days ahead, which traders can cross-reference against Wunderground's historical patterns. Seasonal atmospheric conditions—including potential cold fronts moving south or persistent high-pressure systems—will drive actual temperatures. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's recorded data for that specific station, making historical accuracy at that location the key reference point for position-sizing decisions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.