Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17?

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Market context

On 17 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. That single reading—published to one decimal place in the Observatory's Daily Extract—will determine which temperature band this contract settles into. Currently, Polymarket prices all outcome ranges at effectively zero, suggesting traders see no meaningful probability mass concentrated in any single bracket yet. The contract sits on Polygon, denominated in USDC, with conditional tokens that will resolve once the Observatory publishes finalised data after the settlement window closes at noon UTC on the specified date.

Hong Kong's June climate is consistently warm and humid, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 28°C and 33°C during mid-month. The 30-year average high for mid-June sits near 31°C, though the Observatory's records show occasional excursions above 34°C during heat waves and below 27°C during periods of heavy cloud cover or monsoon influence. The current 0% crowd probability reflects the market's standard treatment of distant weather events—genuine uncertainty about conditions eighteen months forward makes early positioning speculative rather than information-driven.

The key dependency for traders is the Hong Kong Observatory's publication schedule and any revisions to historical climate normals. Seasonal forecasting models from the Met Office or other regional meteorological services may offer directional guidance as June 2026 approaches, though their skill at such lead times remains limited. Traders should monitor any announced changes to the Observatory's measurement methodology or station relocation, which could affect comparability with historical baselines.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.