Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 2?

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Market context

On 2 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius, which this market will settle against once official data publishes. The contract is currently priced at 0% YES across all temperature bands, reflecting either extreme uncertainty about which range will resolve or minimal trading activity. Settlement depends on the Observatory's "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in their Daily Extract dataset, measured to one decimal place—a precision that matters when temperature bands are typically 1–2°C wide.

Hong Kong's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer. Historical data shows daily maxima in early June cluster between 28°C and 32°C, with occasional spikes above 33°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer price discovery or treating the market as illiquid. Comparable June days from the past decade provide a baseline: the Observatory's records show variability driven by monsoon transitions and tropical systems, making any single day's outcome genuinely uncertain rather than predictable from seasonal averages alone.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch tropical cyclone forecasts and upper-air patterns in late May, as these directly influence whether high-pressure systems or moisture-laden southwesterlies dominate on the settlement date. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes extended forecasts ten days ahead; their mid-May outlooks will clarify whether June 2nd falls within a heat episode or cooler spell. Data publication typically occurs within days of the settlement window close, though official finalisation can extend timelines. USDC liquidity on Polygon will likely remain thin until forecasts narrow the temperature range's probability distribution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.