Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polymarket, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or that traders are awaiting the settlement window to close before engaging. Resolution depends on the Observatory's published "Daily Extract" data, which records temperatures to one decimal place. The USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon will split according to whichever temperature band contains the actual maximum reading.

Hong Kong's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 28°C and 33°C. The Observatory's records from previous June 9ths show considerable year-to-year variation: temperatures have ranged from around 28.5°C in cooler years to 32°C or higher during warmer spells. This spread reflects the territory's vulnerability to both tropical air masses and occasional cooler maritime influences. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects the market's nascent stage rather than genuine certainty about temperature ranges.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the weeks preceding early June 2026, as such systems can significantly suppress temperatures. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 9 June, after which the Observatory typically publishes daily data within 24 hours. Regional weather patterns—particularly the strength of the Southwest Monsoon and any upper-level troughs—will determine whether June 9 falls toward the cooler or warmer end of the historical distribution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.