Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 27 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius, which will settle this market once the official data is finalised. Polymarket currently prices all temperature ranges at zero, reflecting the settlement window's closure at noon UTC on that date—a hard deadline that prevents real-time price discovery as the day unfolds in Hong Kong. The contract uses conditional tokens on Polygon, with USDC collateral, and resolves exclusively to the "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract dataset.

Hong Kong's May temperatures typically range between 28°C and 34°C, with historical data showing occasional peaks above 35°C during early summer heat waves. The 0% probability across all ranges suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as illiquid until closer to the settlement date. Previous May records indicate that temperatures exceeding 32°C occur in roughly 40% of years, whilst readings above 35°C are less common but not exceptional during pre-monsoon conditions.

The key variable determining May 2026 temperatures will be the timing and intensity of the southwest monsoon onset, typically expected between mid-May and early June. Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the preceding weeks, as both significantly influence daily maxima. The Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries with historical comparisons, providing the baseline data necessary for calibrating range probabilities before the settlement window closes.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.