Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25?

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Market context

Istanbul Airport's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded by NOAA's meteorological station and settled against their official hourly data. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polygon, meaning traders have not yet committed USDC to any outcome conditional tokens. Settlement depends on finalised NOAA readings across all 24 hours of that date, with the resolution window closing at 12:00 UTC on 25 May.

Late May in Istanbul typically sees maximum temperatures between 26–28°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. Historical May records at Atatürk Airport (the predecessor observation site) show occasional spikes to 32–34°C during warm years, whilst cooler springs have registered highs around 22–24°C. The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty this far ahead rather than consensus that extreme temperatures are impossible; seasonal volatility in the eastern Mediterranean remains substantial even within a single calendar month.

Traders should monitor Turkish meteorological forecasts and European weather models from early May onwards, as upper-level atmospheric patterns and any heat domes tracking northward from North Africa would be early signals. The Turkish State Meteorological Service publishes seasonal outlooks that occasionally flag anomalous warming; any such advisory issued in April or early May could shift market pricing. NOAA data publication typically occurs with a lag of several days after the observation date, so final settlement may not occur until late May or early June.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.