Highest temperature in London on June 6?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, with traders currently pricing all outcomes at zero probability on Polymarket. The settlement mechanism relies on historical data from Weather Underground's London City Airport station, a standardised meteorological point that captures daily maxima in Celsius. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery across the full spectrum of outcomes.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18–24°C, with historical records showing that days exceeding 25°C occur roughly once per decade in early summer. The Met Office's 30-year climate normals place the average high for early June at approximately 21°C, though the city has recorded extremes as high as 32°C during exceptional heatwaves. Recent years including the June 2022 heatwave that pushed readings above 30°C demonstrate that outlier outcomes remain plausible, even if statistically uncommon for this specific calendar date.

Traders should monitor the UK's seasonal weather patterns as spring 2026 progresses, particularly any signals from the Met Office regarding atmospheric pressure systems and Atlantic weather patterns that typically influence June conditions. The North Atlantic Oscillation and solar activity cycles will shape whether high-pressure systems establish themselves over the British Isles during the settlement window. Current pricing reflects genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will ultimately resolve, with no dominant consensus emerging from the crowd.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 6? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.