Highest temperature in London on June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station. The Polymarket contract currently shows 0% probability across all temperature bands, reflecting either minimal trading activity or a genuine absence of conviction among early participants. USDC deposits on Polygon will remain locked until the settlement window closes at midday on 7 June, at which point the conditional tokens will resolve based on the recorded high.

London's June weather typically ranges between 18°C and 23°C, though the city has experienced outliers in recent years. The 2022 heatwave saw temperatures exceed 40°C in parts of England, though London City Airport itself recorded a more modest peak. Historical June data from the airport station shows most years cluster in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, with occasional spikes into the upper 20s during anticyclonic conditions. The 0% probability across all bands suggests the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery.

Traders should monitor the Met Office's extended forecast as June approaches, particularly any signals of high-pressure systems or Atlantic weather patterns that could drive temperatures upward. The UK's summer weather remains notoriously variable, and late-spring conditions in early June can shift rapidly. Wunderground's historical data for this specific station will be the sole arbiter of resolution, making the choice of measurement location—rather than broader London readings—a critical detail for anyone considering positions.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 7? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.